Advances to Round of 32: Duke, VCU, Liberty, Virginia Tech, Maryland, LSU, Louisville, Michigan State
Advances to Round of 16: Duke, Virginia Tech, LSU, Michigan State
Midwest Region
Advances to Round of 32: UNC, Washington, Auburn, Kansas, Ohio St, Houston, Wofford Kentucky
Advances to Sweet 16: UNC, Auburn, Houston, Kentucky
West Region
Advances to Round of 32: Gonzaga, Baylor, Marquette, Florida State, Buffalo, Texas Tech, Florida, Michigan
Advances to Sweet 16: Gonzaga, Florida State, Texas Tech, Michigan
South Region
Advances to Round of 32: Virginia, Ole Miss, Oregon, Kansas State, Villanova, Purdue, Cincinnati, Tennessee
Advances to Sweet 16: Virginia, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee
Squad to watch out for: Houston
Houston may be a higher seed, but they are a dark horse candidate to win the National Championship. They are well balanced with a very potent offense and a stout defense as they can matchup well with anyone.
Possible Upset:
Murray State vs Marquette
Murray State has this kid named Ja Morant who is pretty good and leads an under-appreciated team and has a good chance at an upset that has a chance for being the best game of the tournament.
Game to watch:
Saint Louis vs Virginia Tech
Saint Louis and Virginia Tech have been playing equally great basketball at the same time, which could make this a classic as its if two unstoppable forces colliding. It’s also a chance for a possible upset, but this should be a fun one to watch.
This might be one of the strongest regions in the entire field as a good amount of these teams could easily make a run for a National Championship. This also could be the absolute most competitive, but the team everyone will be gunning for will be Gonzaga. With that being said, let’s look at each side.
Teams (seeds)
Gonzaga
Michigan
Texas Tech
Florida State
Marquette
Buffalo
Nevada
Syracuse
Baylor
Florida
Arizona State
Murray State
Vermont
Northern Kentucky
Montana
Fairleigh Dickinson
Team Capsules
Gonzaga
These guys are super good. They defend extremely well, are fast, and score a lot of points. This also the year where they think they can actually win the National Championship as they boast a lot of good talent here. Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell Jr, and Josh Perkins make up a good core that make them so formidable that they may actually go all the way.
Michigan
Michigan was so close to winning the National Championship last year that they will be undoubtedly hungry to win it this year. But they do boast a lot of talent like Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis. This team is extremely good at defending as they rank third in the nation and do have a potent offense, though are very inconsistent. This should be a team that could make a big run at the National Championship,
Texas Tech
They lost a good chunk of their team from last year, but this team might be even better. They boast possibly the best player in the Big-12 in Jarrett Culver and it could help that he has a cast that supports his play. Texas Tech also has one of the best defenses in the nation, which should help them make a deep run.
Florida State
Florida State is another dark horse team to make a run at the National Championship as they almost won the ACC Tournament, but they still are a formidable team. They have a lot of weapons, but one of the most incredible things that Florida State does is utilize it’s bench as their top scorer Mfiondu Kabengele never started any game this season.
Marquette
Marquette had played in a very tough Big Ten and came out with a 5 seed, which is remarkable because of how cluttered that conference was in quality. Marquette was even thought of as a top ten team, but their flaws were exposed as they seemingly rely on one player for their offense as Markus Howard remarkably scores points with relative ease.
Buffalo
After last year’s success, they have become a force and look to make a deep run in the tournament. One of their top players is CJ Massinburg, but one of the main reasons they they are so good is that they have a deep bench. Having a deep bench should help anyone do matchup well, and Buffalo has that.
Nevada
This team is returning all the players they had on their roster from last year so they definitely have lots of experience. Nevada played a really well for most of the season before falling off, but they are not to be taken lightly. They have a lot of size that could help them make a run. Their top player is Caleb Martin.
Syracuse
This is another squad to not take lightly as they have a zone defense that helped keep up with teams in a very good ACC. Syracuse is a talented side, but they boast very good player in Tyus Battle who is the main source of their offense. They will need him to be healthy if they want any chance of going deep in this tournament, but their defense should keep them in games.
Baylor
Baylor literally had to transform it’s offense in the middle of the season after losing one of their big men, so they had to make it a guard oriented offense. It seems to work as they are the 9 seed in the tournament. One of their key players is Makai Mason, but health has been a concern for him.
Florida
Florida played the best it could in a very tough SEC, but it is remarkable that they made it into the tournament with the resume they have. They have a very stingy defense, however that will have to make up for a languishing offense as they cannot shoot the ball very well. One of their key players is KeVaughn Allen.
Arizona State
Arizona State is coming off a victory in the First Four against a talented St. John’s side, but Arizona State was more than deserving to get into the tournament as they play a great style of basketball. They score lots of points and they play a very tough brand of defense, plus they can out-rebound seemingly every team on the planet. The team is led by Luguentz Dort as he was the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year.
Murray State
Murray State is not a team to take lightly and have a great chance of making a deep run in the tournament. One of the things that makes them great is how potent their offense is as they boast one of the best players in College Basketball in Ja Morant. This is one team that most people should be on the look for.
Vermont
Vermont must feel like they are disrespected as they have a very exciting brand of basketball and got a very low seed. They are a very tough defensive team, but they also can score a lot of points. Even against a Florida State team in the first round, they should feel pretty confident. One of their key players is Anthony Lamb who scores 21.4 points per game.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky is making it’s second ever appearance at the tournament, but this time around, they have a higher seed and a better chance to make a run. They do have to face a good Texas Tech team in the first round, but with the amount of offense they put up, they should keep it tight. One of their key players will be Drew McDonald.
Montana
Montana is back in the tournament once again, but this time they might actually make a run in this tournament. If Michigan’s offense stagnates, then Montana actually will have a fighting chance as they shoot the ball a lot and score a lot. They should actually match up well with Michigan in the first round and could potentially upset. A key player of their’s is Ahmaad Rorie.
Fairleigh Dickinson
And finally, Fairleigh Dickinson, who defeated Prairie View A&M in the First Four round, will be the last team to cover. They are a fairly interesting squad as they turn the ball over a lot, but then they are one of the top teams in the nations at getting steals. Oh and they shoot well beyond the arc, as that will be something Gonzaga will have to eliminate if they want to not make this a close game.
So this really might be the strongest region of the entire field and looks to be the most interesting too as there are some teams that are not only good enough to make a deep run, were good enough to even a championship. It’s going to be a blood bath to watch.
There are some interesting teams in this region as there is a plethora of talented teams here, that all vary in their style of play. However, there is one thing each of them will try to do and that is top Virginia for a spot in the Final Four. With that being said, here is a look at each team.
Teams (seeds)
Virginia
Tennessee
Purdue
Kansas State
Wisconsin
Villanova
Cincinnati
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Iowa
Saint Mary’s
Oregon
UC Irvine
Old Dominion
Colgate
Gardner-Webb
Team Capsules
Virginia
No, no, they won’t lose in the first round this time around. This version of Virginia might be the most talented team the school has seen the last 20 years as they can truly shoot the ball and head coach Tony Bennett has instilled a very tough defense that other teams seemingly cannot figure out. However, they are also very deep and have some great players like Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome.
Tennessee
No one foresaw Tennessee becoming the juggernaut that they became this season, but they can truly play some really good basketball. However, they boast a lot of experience and are also very potent on offense and very stingy on defense as they rank in the top 20. They don’t shoot three pointers very often, so that could be a concern the further they get in the tournament. Some of their top players are Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone.
Purdue
Purdue had a very strong end to the season after starting it very slowly, that being said though is this version of the team is not as strong as the past two in the tournament and could be an early favorite for an early exit. This team relies on Carsen Edwards as he scores lots and lots of points, but he really doesn’t have much support from his team. That being said, there is some talent here and taking them lightly might be a bad thing too.
Kansas State
Kansas State for a while there was the talk of College Basketball because of how well they played as they play solid defense. They have since cooled, but are still a dark horse threat to win. That being said, the health of Carter Wade will be important if they want to make a deep run. Barry Brown Jr and Cartier Diarra should be able to support the team if Wade cannot play.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin play in a very tough Big Ten and finished fourth in the conference, but they are a threat to go deep in the tournament. Just like Virginia, they play very tough defense, but sometimes their potentially potent offense cannot score points and their free throw shooting is atrocious. Some of the key players are Ethan Happ, D’Mitrik Trice, and Brad Davison.
Villanova
They are the defending champions, though not as strong as they used to be. That being said they have a chance to repeat as they have quite the recipe to be successful. They shoot three-pointers like crazy as they average 11 per game. That being said, when they can’t shoot well beyond the arc, they are vulnerable. Some of the key players here are Phil Booth, Eric Paschall, and Collin Gillespie.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats usually play good solid defense, so they have as good a chance to make a deep run in the tournament. However, being the seven seed hurts their chances with that. There was talk about whether they should be a top 25 side, and it showed with them winning their tournament. Star player Jarron Cumberland will need to be on the top of his game if Cincinnati wants to do anything in this tournament.
Ole Miss
Many didn’t expect Ole Miss to do much this season, but after using a four guard lineup, they are now playing in the tournament. Their ability to control the tempo and be play-up has allowed to win a lot of games, but they also score when it counts as they have shot 78.3% of their attempts at the free throw line. Breein Tyree, Terence Davis, and Devontae Shuler are some of Ole Miss’ key players.
Oklahoma
A bit of a surprise to see them nab a nine seed after a sub .500 record in conference play, but here they are trying to prove themselves in the tournament. They have been playing excellent defense and that has been a big reason as to why they made the tournament, however, they lack a true scoring threat and their most likely player to be their “threat” is Christian James.
Iowa
Defense has been the achilles heel for Iowa as it costed them lots of games down the stretch, but here they are in the tournament as a 10 seed with a chance of redemption. When their defense is on, they are very tough to beat and have a chance to go deep in the tournament, but that’s a big “if.” One of the key players for Iowa is Tyler Cook, but Jordan Bohannon is another crucial player for this team.
Saint Mary’s
This isn’t quite the same Saint Mary’s teams of the past, but they still have some talent here and have the ability to possibly go deep if their three point shooting gets hot. That being said, they did defeat a Gonzaga team that has a one seed in this tournament, which goes to show that they can beat anyone. Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts are key pieces to their offense if they want to win.
Oregon
A very dangerous 12 seed in this tournament, the Ducks may be a dark horse candidate to go deep in this tournament because not only do they have a lot of size, they also have a very strong defense which helped them win a lot of games down the stretch during the season. Some of their key players are Payton Pritchard and Louis King.
UC Irvine
UC Irvine might be another team that has a chance for an upset as they have a very punishing defense that just does not allow most offenses to get going. It worked well for them in conference play as they lost only one game during the regular season. They also force their opponents to shoot a lot and let them try to beat them beyond the arc. A key player for their team is Max Hazzard.
Old Dominion
One thing they boast a lot of is veteran leadership. They also have a lot of balance in their team as they can both score and play solid defense. Their two key players are B.J. Stith and Ahmad Caver however, those are the only two players they can rely on as they don’t have much after that.
Colgate
Colgate is coming in hot as they have won 11 straight are trying to win a 12th, but it comes at a price of a 15 seed and a formidable foe in Tennessee. One thing they do well is that they shoot from beyond the arc really well, but that might be one of the only things that might help them in this tournament as they are heavy underdogs. One of their key players is Rapolas Ivanauskas.
Gardner-Webb
Another first timer in the tournament, this could be interesting for them as they are a 16 seed and have to face Virginia. Their hope is to be the next UMBC, but it will be unlikely. David Efianayi and DJ Laster are the main sources of offense for this team, but there is also the promising Jose Perez.
This might be the weakest of all the regions as it’s incredibly top heavy and lacking possible candidates to upset, but it could be interesting who makes out of it and wins as there some strong sides here who could win the National Championship.
There is a lot of talent in this region as the eight top seeds are some really good basketball teams. Lots of great defensive teams and a lot of potent offenses too, but the team every one will be trying to gun for is North Carolina as they are formidable side. That being said, let’s take a look at each team.
Teams (seeds)
North Carolina
Kentucky
Houston
Kansas
Auburn
Iowa State
Wofford
Utah State
Washington
Seton Hall
Ohio State
New Mexico State
Northeastern
Georgia State
Abilene Christian
Iona
Team Capsules
North Carolina
Wow, how much they descended this year as they are now playing their absolute best basketball coming into the tournament having won 15 of 17 games and came very close to winning all three games against their arch-rival Duke. That being said, this side is close to being the most complete team in the tournament as they boast depth, can control the boards, defend well, and score a lot, plus their shooting is outstanding. Their top players are Luke Maye, Cam Johnson, and Coby White.
Kentucky
This squad has lots of talent, but their problem is the ability to stay consistent with their play. If Kentucky plays to their absolute best, they might be one of the toughest teams in this tournament. One x-factor that makes them so successful is their ability to control the boards, but defensively they are sound. Three-point shooting is not their strength, but that shouldn’t be a problem until they face teams who will force them to shoot three pointers. Some of their top players are P.J. Washington, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson.
Houston
This is a very good defensive side as they rank first in the nation, and it’s helped propel them to a three seed. That being said, Houston matches up well with essentially any team in the nation and that’s because of their defense. But it’s not even their defense, the offense can score a lot of points as it has put up 80 points or more 10 times this year. They also boast a lot veteran leadership. They shoot well beyond the arc and they defend well against the shot beyond the arc. This is a team who could easily be viewed as a strong contender for the National Championship, however, they do have UNC and Kentucky in their side of the bracket. Some of their best players are Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks.
Kansas
Weirdly enough, this has not been the strongest Kansas team of late, yet they earned the four seed in this Midwest region of the tournament and have a chance to redeem their season. It might be a lack of experience as they have four freshmen in their lineup, but there is talent there. The Jayhawks will need Dedric Lawson to play his best basketball if Kansas wants a chance to make a run.
Auburn
Thought to be a top team in the nation at the beginning of the year, Auburn stumbled out of the gates, but some how finished strong to earn a five seed. Auburn is one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation. If they can drain threes, then they are a dangerous team. If not, it will be a much easier time to defeat them. Bryce Brown, Jared Harper, and Chuma Okeke are some of their key players.
Iowa State
To say they don’t size up well against other teams is an understatement as they use a four guard lineup, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous. In fact, they shoot the lights out of the ball. They boast an incredible sharp shooter in Marial Shayok, but Lindell Wigginton is their secret weapon off the bench as he has scored 13.4 points per game. Problem with Iowa State is that they don’t defend well.
Wofford
Wofford came out of nowhere this year and had a very strong year as they nabbed the number seven seed. One thing this team can do is shoot really well and when they are hot, it will be very tough to beat them. Some of their top players are Fletcher Magee, Cameron Jackson, and Nathan Hoover. This will be a team to keep an eye on.
Utah State
Utah State has a nice mix of veteran leadership and fresh faces that makes this team a very dangerous eight seed, maybe the best of all the eight seeds. Sam Merrill is their best player and will need him to be playing at his best to win games and go deep, but he has a supporting casts of players such as Neemias Queta and Quinn Taylor.
Washington
The way they win games is that their defense is very good, especially as they play zone (a 2-3 zone to be exact). That’s what helped lead them to a Pac-12 regular season title. However, despite having a strong defense, their offense is suspect and that could be the difference between a deep run or an early exit. Some of their top players are Jaylen Nowell, Noah Dickerson, Matisse Thybulle, and David Crisp.
Seton Hall
Seton Hall made a case for themselves to make the tournament after wins over Villanova and Marquette in the Big East tournament, but there are a lot of question marks. Seton Hall seemingly has a one man offense. Myles Powell is a player their offense relies on as he has scored 30 or more points eight times this season. Myles Cale is their best bet to support Powell, but they will need more help than that if they want to advance.
Ohio State
There’s actually a lot to like here about the Buckeyes despite a losing record in conference play. That being said, they were without their best player Kaleb Wesson in that span. He’s now back and this is a much better team than people think. However, he will need to be healthy if the Buckeyes want to win, or otherwise they will lose early.
New Mexico State
They are quietly one of the better lower seeds in the tournament, but this team is dangerous. One of the reasons why they are so good is that their defense is incredibly solid and another is that their ability to control the board is phenomenal. Some players to watch out for are Terrell Brown and Eli Chuha.
Northeastern
Perimeter shooting has been one of the main keys to the Colonial Athletic champions. They like to shoot a lot from outside the arc and are pretty good at nailing them. However, their defense is suspect as they also allow their opponents to shoot a lot and it has cost them. Some of their top players are Vasa Pusica, Jordan Roland, and Bolden Brace.
Georgia State
Georgia State has a very potent offense as all five of their starters average at least 11 points per game. It’s also a very balanced attack. That being said, they can absolutely shoot the lights out of the ball as they boast some sharp shooters in D’Marcus Simonds, Devin Mitchell, and Malik Benlevi.
Abilene Christian
They are making their first ever appearance in the tournament so where is a lot that can happen in this situation as they could come out with excitement and shock everyone with an upset or they could look like deer in headlights where they look lost. Jaren Lewis is their star player.
Iona
Iona started the season off slowly, but played some really good basketball to get into this tournament. Their offense is pretty balanced and should put up some points, but there is a reason why they are the weakest team in the region. Some of their top players are Rickey McGill, Asante Gist, E.J. Crawford, and Tajuan Agee.
This region has a lot of fire power, however, it’s mostly top heavy as the lower seeds are very weak and an upset is not likely (though Ohio State and New Mexico State have good chances). That being said, once it gets deeper into the tournament, some of the best games of the tournament could happen in this region.
The East is filled with a lot of beasts as this region has lots of potent teams. That being said, this should be a very exciting region of basketball as potentially some of the best games could happen in this section of the tournament. However, the squad everyone will be chasing will be Duke, who are the heavy favorites to win. Let’s take a look at each team.
Teams (seeds):
Duke
Michigan State
LSU
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Maryland
Louisville
VCU
UCF
Minnesota
Belmont
Liberty
Saint Louis
Yale
Bradley
North Dakota State
Team Capsules
Duke
Undoubtedly one of the most talented squads in college, they boast some of the best basketball prospects in Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Tre Jones, and Cam Reddish. While they do not shoot the ball too well, they attack the paint ferociously and are very hard to defend. They were the favorites to win at beginning of the year and they still are the favorites. They are really good and fun to watch.
Michigan State
If you thought Duke was good, Michigan State is another really top notch squad who has made a case that they should be considered a favorite. They shoot the ball extremely well and their defense is one of the best in college as they boast such stout players as Cassius Winston and Nick Ward. Oh, and they also share the ball extremely well and have an excellent time possessing it as well. They should be the biggest threat to counter Duke.
LSU
LSU came out of nowhere to surprise a lot of people and even got a three seed in this tournament. Led by head coach Will Wade, LSU turned a lot of heads and the future for program looks promising. However, Wade was recently suspended because of the FBI investigation of the college basketball corruption scandal, so it will be interesting how LSU does. The team does not shoot well, but with the likes of Tremont Waters, Skylar Mays, and Naz Reid, there is a lot of fire power there.
Virginia Tech
After losing their star player Justin Robinson to injury, the Hokies had to reinvent their offense and it paid dividends. The offense is now led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kerry Blackshear Jr, and Ahmed Hill, who’ve all done a remarkable job of leading this team even with the loss of Robinson. Their three-point shooting has been subpar and will need to pick that up in the tournament if they want to go deep. Robinson might also return, but that’s a wait-and-see.
Mississippi State
The SEC had a very strong showing this year and a lot of it had to do with what Mississippi State did as they were a very strong team. Led by star player Quinndary Weatherspoon. What makes them very good is their ability to guard the basket down in the paint. Teams would be wise to shoot more when facing them as they are essentially a brick wall on the paint.
Maryland
They are young and very talented, but also they are exciting as they play some excellent basketball to win games. One of the things they do is rebound the ball really well and they also play stout defense as they only allow 65 points per game. Plus, their offense usually does just enough to win games. Led by Anthony Cowan Jr, Bruno Fernando, and Jalen Smith, this team has a lot of good young talent to make a deep run.
Louisville
The Cardinals surprised everyone with how well they did this year, but head coach Chris Mack has instilled into Louisville what made him so good at Xavier with the scrappy play. There is a lot of front court depth, which has helped them defend the paint well as they are able to rotate a lot of players in and out. Oh, and they shoot the ball well. They are led by players like Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, and Christen Cunningham, but Nwora is their main source of points as he is averaging 17.3 points per game.
VCU
VCU is making their trip back to the NCAA Tournament after being absent for a year. There is a lot of talent here, but it all hinges on whether the health of Marcus Evans, who’s numbers of 14.2 points per game, 3.1 rebounds per game, and 3.3 assists per game helps makes this offense go, is good enough for the tournament. If he is not healthy, leaning on others like De’Riante Jenkins or Marcus Santos-Silva will make things tougher.
UCF
This was an excellent year as they won the most games in program history. They are a really good defensive team and that’s what helped win so many games this year. That being said, the problem is that they do not shoot well, at all, and are very bad at the free throw line. However, watch for players like B.J. Taylor, Tacko Fall, and Aubrey Dawkins as those three are key to UCF’s success.
Minnesota
They came stumbling into the tournament, there is a lot of upside with this team. It rebounds the the ball well and plays good defense, however, the team cannot score three pointers to save their lives so Minnesota will really have to buckle down on defense and on the boards if they want to win games. The team is led by Amir Coffey, the main source of offense. If he’s ineffective then they have no chance at winning.
Belmont
Belmont has a chance to be a George Mason or Loyola Chicago in this tournament as they were a surprise to even get in after losing in their conference tournament. That being said, they are a really good team who relies on sharing the ball to create offense as they average roughly 20 assists per game. Plus, they have size to match up with a lot of teams. They are led by Dylan Windler, Kevin McClain, and Nick Muszynski.
Liberty
This is another team to keep an eye on as they are actually a pretty good team. Defensively, they are sound as they only allow 60.8 points per game and they shoot well, especially at free throw shooting. They have a chance to upset, especially with a lot of fire power with the likes of Scottie James, Caleb Homesley, and Lovell Cabbil Jr on their team. Don’t be shocked to see them make a run in this tournament.
Saint Louis
Saint Louis was looked at one of the best teams in the A-10 coming into the season. They stumbled, but managed to play to their basketball at the right time as Saint Louis won the A-10 tournament. One of the things about them is that they are extremely athletic and matchup well with probably most teams in this tournament, plus they boast talent in the likes of Javon Bess, Tramaine Isabell Jr, and Jordan Goodwin. Saint Louis is not only another candidate to upset, but also another candidate to go deep in the tournament.
Yale
Yale started the season off slow, but then rebounded to win their second Ivy League title in four years. Yale has four players that average in double digits in points and are very consistent shooters. They are surprisingly a dangerous team that also has a chance to upset, but if they shoot well, limit turnovers, control the boards, and covert on free throws in crucial situations, then they could make a run in the tournament, however, that’s a lot to ask. They are led by players such as Miye Oni, Alex Copeland, Blake Reynolds, and Jordan Bruner.
Bradley
The Missouri Valley had two very good teams in its conference in Loyola Chicago and Northern Iowa and they both easily could have made the tournament. Bradley defeated both of them to win the conference title and secure a spot in the tournament. The team plays some stout defense and don’t allow other teams to shoot well against them. Problem is that their offense isn’t strong. Their key players will be Darrell Brown and Nate Kennell.
North Dakota State
This team barely got into the tournament and won their First Four matchup against NC Central, but they will have their work cut out if they want to advance. They rely on their shooting as they can nail lots of three pointers and shoot well at the line, but defensively they will struggle as teams score 46% of their shots on them. North Dakota State is the weakest team in this region. Some of their top players are Vinnie Shahid, Tyson Ward, and Rocky Kreuser.
This region might be one of the most competitive in the whole tournament as they have some legit lower seeds that can pull off upsets and make deep runs as well as some like Virginia Tech or Maryland as dark horse contenders. This has a lot of balance and some of the best games of the tournament look to happen out of this region.
James Rowe: France. I think the French have a promising squad that is looking a bit consistent, but not quite good enough to compete for the trophy. They will get there soon.
Aaron Craig: France. Easy decision
Ireland vs Wales
James: Ireland. While I think this will be a great match, I truly believe the Irish are going to look for redemption after losing their first match against England. I also think they truly are the best team in Europe though Wales is very talented as well. The Irish should push hard in this one.
Aaron: Wales. The Welsh are getting the Slam! Wales is playing superb rugby and their back three backs will be the deciding factor.
Scotland vs England
James: England. Scotland may put up a valiant effort, but the English are playing great rugby at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Aaron: England. Scotland has really fallen off after the first two weeks. England is going to be too much for the Scots.
James Rowe: Wales. While I think Scotland will put up a fight, I feel like Wales has a lot of momentum right now that will be tough to beat.
Aaron Craig: Wales.
England vs Italy
James: England. Seriously, let’s be real here.
Aaron: England
Ireland vs France
James: Ireland. The Irish will play a very tough defensive squad in the French, but Joe Schmidt will have his best game plan to beat them. That being said, this will be a closer game than people think.
James Rowe: Scotland. I actually think this will be one of the more exciting games this weekend, but the Scottish will come out with the victory. France is better than what we thought, but they are just not good enough to beat Scotland.
Aaron Craig: Scotland.
Wales vs England
James: England. This will be one of the best games in the entire tournament and I can see this going either way, but I have been so impressed with England thus far that it leads me to believe that they will come out with a victory.
Aaron: England.
Italy vs Ireland
James: Ireland. Let’s be real here, the Irish are clearly the best team in Europe and playing against Italy is almost a guaranteed win. The Italians will struggle mightily in this match.
Arguably the best rugby league in the world, Super Rugby is back for it’s 24th season with 14 teams gunning for the Crusaders, the defending champions from 2018. While the Crusaders will be looked at as the favorites, any one of these teams can win as there is some of the best talent in the world here especially the ones who make up the All-Blacks, Wallabies, Springboks, and Pumas squads. With that being said, let’s take a look at each team.
New Zealand Conference
Blues
The Blues finished last in the conference and will look to improve as much as they can this year, however, there is some hope after they had some competitive games. Things cannot get as bad as 2018, but 2019 is a bit of a mystery. They have a superstar winger in Rieko Ioane as the main source of offense for them, but they also have the athletic and talented center Sonny Bill Williams who can come in support of Ioane. Legendary center Ma’a Nonu joins the squad for 2019 as he adds experience and should help make the offense better even if age has taken a toll on his talent. There is also a lot of talent in the packs with prop Ofa Tu’ungafasi leading the scrum, but will get a new partner in Karl Tu’inukuafe on the other side. Those two should be integral to a strong scrum with All Black Patrick Tuipulotu pushing behind them. However, they did lose Jerome Kaino as he is one of the best forwards in the game and that could hurt their pack. Loose forward Akira Ioane should be a player to watch on this squad.
Chiefs
It may seem like finishing third in their conference feels like an underachievement, however, they actually advanced to the playoffs, but lost in the quarterfinals. That being said, there is a lot of talent and they could make a deep run in the playoffs. They have some very talented players like lock Brodie Retallick and the versatile flyhalf-fullback Damian McKenzie. The Chiefs can score a lot, but they also have stout defense. They’re well-rounded. However, their depth will be tested as they lost back row forward Liam Messam, prop Karl Tu’inukuafe, and center Charlie Ngatai, plus they lost flanker Sam Cane to injury. Despite all that, there is a lot of talent here that can lead them to a playoff berth. One player to watch is scrumhalf Brad Weber.
Crusaders
The defending champions. What else can you describe them as as the Crusaders are the favorites to win it again. They have a target on their backs as they are seen as the best side in the entire competition and the team to beat. They are, after all, the most successful team in the league’s history with nine titles. Their strength has to be the forwards as they boast some of the best players in the world as there is 8 man Kieran Read, props Owen Franks and Joe Moody, hooker Codie Taylor, and locks Sam Whitelock and Scott Barrett. In the backs, they are very strong too as they have flyhalf Richie Mo’unga, centers Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Jack Goodhue and fullback Israel Dagg. The only loss the team suffered was prop Wyatt Crockett. This team is too good and it will be very hard for any other squad to beat them. There’s a reason why they are the favorites. Two players to watch are winger Leicester Fainga’anuku and versatile back David Havili.
Highlanders
The Highlanders finished fourth in their conference and made the playoffs, but lost to the high scoring Waratahs side in the quarterfinals. That being said, there is some talent here that will likely lead them back to the playoffs. Their prized All Black Liam Squire leads their pack, but might not even into the team with Dillon Hunt, Luke Whitelock, Shannon Frizell, and Jackson Hemopo are competing for spots in the back row (with the later two being options in the second row). However, the offense has some weapons on it like scrumhalf Aaron Smith and fullback Ben Smith, but there is also the ultra-talented winger Waisake Naholo who is one of the best in the league. There will be some questions for this team though. Last season, the defense was not very strong and flyhalf Lima Sopoaga leaves a void at the 10 jersey. Some options to be the starting flyhalf are Bryn Gatland, Marty Banks, and Josh Ioane. While likely to win a lot of games, consistency will be the question. Winger Tevita Li is a player to watch for on this team.
Hurricanes
The Hurricanes finished in second place in the conference, but lost to the Crusaders in the semifinals. Their hope is to prove that they are better than their finish in 2019 as they have a very strong side. Just looking at the backs, scrumhalf TJ Perenara and flyhalf Beauden Barrett make up for one of the best pairs in all of rugby, especially Barrett who is a world class player. There are other such studs in the backs like versatile back Jordie Barrett, wingers Ben Lam and Nehe Milner-Skudder, and center Ngani Laumape. In the forwards, there is hooker Dane Coles, lock Liam Mitchell, flanker Vaea Fifita, Ardie Savea, and prop Ben May. However, their pack lost a lot of talent like winger Julian Savea, flanker Brad Shields, and lock Michael Fatialofa, so there may be some concern there. Otherwise, there isn’t much to worry about this team as they should be a finals contender. A player to watch is back rower Gareth Evans.
Australia Conference
Brumbies
If it wasn’t for a five game losing streak, the Brumbies would have made the playoffs in 2018. There is some talent here and seem to be improving every year, but the hope is to make a stamp this season and make a deep run in the playoffs. Led by stud flanker David Pocock, but in the forwards, there is also props Scott Sio and James Slipper, lock Sam Carter, and loose forward Pete Samu. In the backs, there is fullback Tom Banks, who is a game-changer, center Tevita Kuridrani, and wingers Toni Pulu and Henry Speight. The flyhalf position will be a competition for the starting 10 jersey with the likes of Wharenui Hawera and Christian Lealiifano, though Lealiifano has the edge. One of the biggest reasons why they stay competitive is because they are a very sound defensive team, so keep an eye on that when watching their games. There is a lot of hope that this the year they make the playoffs. One player to watch for is center Irae Simone.
Rebels
The Rebels just barely missed out on a playoff spot finishing ninth overall in the table, but with having seemingly improved this offseason, there’s a good chance of making it this season. The biggest strength for this team is the attack from the backs as they boast talent, which are some players that are featured on the Wallabies such as fullback Dane Haylett-Petty, utility back Reece Hodge, flyhalves Matt Toomua and Quade Cooper, and scrumhalf Will Genia, plus some up-and-coming stud players like fullback Jake Maddocks and centers Tom English and Billy Meakes. The forwards, on the other hand, are not nearly as strong despite some quality players like lock Adam Coleman and hooker Jordan Uelese, but their scrum might have some issues this year. They have also lost the X-factor of Amanaki Mafi for a little bit while he is charged for assault. However, there is a good chance these guys make the playoffs. One player to watch for is back rower Isi Naisarani.
Reds
The Reds did not have a very good season as they finished in 13th place overall. Clearly they were not playoff material. However, if last season was bad, 2019 might be even worse as some key players have left as they might have taken a step back. Some of the players lost were prop James Slipper, lock Kane Douglas, flanker George Smith, flyhalf Quade Cooper (who coach Brad Thorn refused to play), and fullback Karmichael Hunt. Their defense struggles a lot and their inability to be consistent is what hurts the team the most. However, there is some quality players on the team such as flanker Scott Higginbotham and back Samu Kerevi, plus they added winger Sefa Naivalu and fullback Bryce Hegarty. Some other promising players featured on the squad are lock Izack Rodda and hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa. They also have the x-factor of Taniela Tupou at tighthead. While there is some good talent on this team, expect them to struggle mightily in 2019. One player to watch will be is winger Jordan Petaia.
Sunwolves
The only side from Japan, the Sunwolves were the worst team in the entire league in 2018 and there isn’t much hope for them in 2019. There really isn’t much of any facet of their game that is good, but if there is one to pick out is that they have the ability to score a lot of points. The most important player on the pitch will be flyhalf Hayden Parker, but another important player will also be flanker Michael Leitch who leads a promising back row in the forwards especially with the addition of loose forward Sean McMahon. There is some upside with this team, but the team will likely to struggle a lot in 2019. One player to watch will be prop Pauliasi Manu.
Waratahs
The Waratahs benefited from a bad conference to make the playoffs last season, but with some other teams in the same conference improving, the Waratahs will need to play a bit better. They managed to beat the Highlanders in the quarterfinals, but lost to the Lions in the semi-finals. What makes them a lethal side is the ability to score almost seemingly at will. In the backs, they boast some world class talent like fullback Israel Folau, center Kurtley Beale, flyhalf Bernard Foley, scrumhalf Nick Phipps, and then went on to add winger Adam Ashley-Cooper and fullback Karmichael Hunt during the offseason. To say they have a lot of fire power is an understatement. There is also some quality forwards on this side like prop Sekope Kepu, lock Rob Simmons, and flanker Michael Hooper. There wasn’t any significant loss during the offseason, though losing winger Taqele Naiyaravoro will hurt their offense a bit as he scores a lot. However, there was one particular issue the team had last year and it was their defense as it was arguably one of the worst in the entire league. If they want to win the conference again, the defense will need to get better, but expect them to compete for a playoff spot. One player to watch is flanker Jack Dempsey.
South Africa Conference
Bulls
The Bulls are not a very strong side despite having some talent on the team. They finished 12th on the table, but were definitely the worst from South Africa. With that being said, they do have some world class talent like lock Lood de Jager, flyhalf Handre Pollard, center Jesse Kriel, and 8 man Duane Vermeulen. The biggest strength for them is the offense as they scored the seventh most amount of tries of any team in the history of the league. Even the best defenses have the hardest time stopping their attack. Some of those players that contributed to the historical offense in 2018 and are returning to the team are hooker Schalk Brits, prop Trevor Nyakane, and winger Cornal Hendricks. However, their defense was terrible as they managed to let the second most amount of points in the league in 2018. While there is a likelihood that the team will improve, do not expect them to compete for a playoff spot. One player to watch is winger Rosko Specman.
Jaguares
The only team from Argentina in the competition, the Jaguares boast a lot of players for Argentina’s national side and it shows how good the country has come along on the international front. That being said, the team finished second in the conference and clinched the seven seed in the playoffs as they made the playoffs for the first time in their club’s history (albeit very short history as they first started playing in 2016). Despite making history, the team fell in the quarterfinals to the Lions. What makes them so successful is that they have a strong defense, including a formidable scrum, and on offense they run the ball well. There is some very good players on the team like hookers Agustin Creevy and Julian Montoya and center Jeronimo de la Fuente, but they did lose a very talented flyhalf in Nicolas Sanchez. The flyhalf void might be the biggest question mark for the team. Expect them to compete this season for one of the lower playoff spots, but also to be in almost every game because of their defense. Two players to watch are winger Bautista Delguy and flanker Pablo Matera.
Lions
The Lions are clearly the most talented side from South Africa as they even boast some of the starting players on South Africa’s national team. In 2018, they made a deep run to the finals only to lose to the Crusaders. The Lions have made the finals three seasons in a row, but nothing to show of it. That being said, they should be one of the top sides in the competition in 2019. The biggest part of why they are so successful is that they score a lot of tries (89 in 2018). However, they boast some world class players like hooker Malcolm Marx, loose forwards Warren Whiteley and Kwagga Smith, flyhalf Elton Jantjies, winger Aphiwe Dyantyi, and fullback Andries Coetzee. The team did lose some quality players like lock Franco Mostert, prop Ruan Dreyer, and flanker Jaco Kriel in the offseason. But even with their losses, this team should be expected to win the conference. A player to watch is lock Stephan Lewies.
Sharks
The Sharks clinched the final spot of the playoffs in 2018, but were subsequently knocked out in the first round. The hope in 2019 is that they are more improved and could push the Lions for the top spot in the conference or at least claim a better spot in the playoffs. One of their strength’s is their kicking which keeps them in many matches. Flyhalf Robert du Preez is one of the reasons why the team’s kicking is so good despite somewhat of an inept offense. They are also a very strong defensive team which is another good reason why they made the playoffs. The Sharks have a lot of strong players such as prop Tendai Mtawarira, lock Ruan Botha, center S’busiso Nkosi, and scrumhalf Louis Schreuder. This team is much improved and look to challenge the Lions for the top spot in the conference. One player to watch for is flyhalf Curwin Bosch.
Stormers
The Stormers had a very disappointing season in 2018 as they finished 11th in the table. While there is some upside on the team, the team should continue it’s struggles in 2019. However, the players on this team will look to push for a spot in the playoffs as they boast some talent here. In the forwards, that’s where the team’s strength lies as they have locks Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit, flanker Siya Kolisi, hooker Bongi Mbonambi, and prop Stephen Kitshoff. That being said, while there is talent in this team, there is question marks about whether how inexperienced the squad is will hurt them a lot. The Stormers are on the rise, but there still needs some work to be done. A player to watch on this team is flyhalf Damian Willemse.
Predictions
James Rowe: There is a lot of good rugby here, but I think the winners of each conference will be pretty obvious as will some of the wild card spots. That being said, there will be a fight for the final two spots of the playoffs and that will be fun to watch.
Jeffrey Young: While defence is said to be optional and backs win the games I believe that it will come down to the forward packs this year with many of the stars being rested for the World Cup.
New Zealand Conference Winner: Crusaders
Australia Conference Winner: Waratahs
South Africa Conference: Lions
Wild Card Teams: Hurricanes, Brumbies, Jaguares, Rebels, Blues
Every march there are thrilling upsets, some giant killers win a game then proceed to get blasted in the next round, some keep the streak going and string multiple wins together, others take it all the way to the final four or in extreme instances, the national championship game. The types of teams that proceed these three actions, you have the 13-16 seeds who go win a game and are out, the usual 8-12 seeds who might string a run to the Elite Eight, and then the 5-7 seeds who, while favored in the first game still manage to defy the odds making it way farther than they were supposed to. While the boundaries are very loose, the trends are very apparent and there is usually multiple of each every year. Here are what I call the three tiers of Cinderella’s, and also teams to watch out for that could fit these categories in a month.
All stats are via Kenpom.com unless mentioned otherwise
Tier One: Giant Killers
These are teams that are generally in the 13-16 seed range, they win one game, slaying a giant and then get plummeted in the ensuing round. Since 2010, we have seen 18 teams win a first-round game seeded, a little over two a year. Of those teams, just two: Florida Gulf Coast (2015) and Ohio (2013) made the sweet sixteen and zero made it any farther than that. Last year we saw three giant killer teams: Buffalo (13), Marshall (13), and UMBC (16) all proceeded to lose in the second round. These are always the hardest to predict, mainly because teams that are 14-16 seeds are usually teams that are either A: conference tournament champions from bottom-dwelling conferences such as the SWAC or, B: Teams who upset the conference favorites who would have been a higher seed such as Marshall or UMBC from last year. So even avid college basketball fans do not know much about the teams, much less the masses who fill out brackets. That’s why Marshall shocking Wichita St was much more talked about than when Loyola Chicago notched their first of many upsets against Miami. The Ramblers were a mid-major powerhouse and a trendy upset pick. But while these teams are hard to predict in March, I will try to predict them in February.
Candidate One: Radford
You may know the Highlanders as the team that got absolutely crushed by Villanova, being the first of many of the Wildcats victims last March. But the Big South favorites are back and stronger than ever. While their history as a program is not spectacular by many teams, they have just one tournament win in their history, a first four-win just last year over 16 seeded Long Beach, this might be the best team in their 35-year history. They have a current record of 16-7 and are 7-1 in Big South play, the big showing is their wins over Texas and Notre Dame. While they won’t be tested for the rest of the year, as the Big South ranks 25th in NET and do not feature a single top 115 team. If they were to win their conference tournament, they would likely find themselves as either a 13 or 14 seed (they are currently predicted as a 14 seed on Jerry Palm’s latest bracketology). If the Highlanders were to pull off an upset it would most likely be because of their senior leadership, as seven of their top eight players are upperclassmen. The one who is not, their leading scorer Carlik Jones, a well-rounded sophomore who is a Big South POY contender. The Aiken High School product (located in Cincinnati, Ohio), is averaging 16/5/6 on 57 TS%. Along with senior Ed Polite Jr who is nearly averaging a double-double. Watch out for the Highlanders come March, they could be a serious surprise.
Candidate Two: Georgia St
Another team that made the big dance last year, the Panthers upset Louisiana to win the Sun Belt last season and earned a 15 seed falling to Cincinnati. They are no strangers to upsets. Their two tournament wins both coming in that form. Famously, they defeated Baylor as a 14 seed in dramatic fashion. Less famously they knocked off Wisconsin as an 11 seed in 2001 in Georgia St’s best season to date (29-5). While this year’s team does not have a first round pick like the 2014 team, D’Marcus Simonds is a stud, and the 20 ppg scorer is in ESPN’s top 100 big board. Outside of him, the Panthers have four other double-digit scorers including former top 100 recruit, senior Devin Mitchell. Georgia St already has wins over Georgia and Alabama. A 4 seed such as maybe Villanova or LSU who are not extremely talented at guarding the deep ball could be next. That is of course if the Panthers make it to the Big Dance, they have already dropped three Sun Belt games, including a home loss to Texas St, their biggest competitor, but if they do watch out.
Candidate Three: UC Irvine
UC Irvine’s Eyassu Worku drives against a Hawaii player during a Big West Conference basketball game at UCI Saturday, Feb. 9, 2019. (Photo by Michael Fernandez, Contributing Photographer)
UC Irvine is an extremely obscure school in the Big West. In their 42 years of existence, they have just one tourney appearance in which they lost 57-55 to four seeded Louisville. The Anteaters (no joke) play one of the slowest tempos in college basketball, having the 295th fastest in the nation and a defense to back it up, holding opponents to just 65.6 ppg, 37th in the nation. While coach Russ Turner does not have a star to rely on, they have nine players that score over 5 ppg, they have very good depth. Senior Robert Cartwright was the 69th recruit coming out of high school, while he has not lived up to the hype he is a serviceable player transferring from Stanford. Juniors Max Hazzard and Evan Leonard are knockdowns three-point shooters hitting five per game on a 40% clip between the two of them. Racing off to a 19-5 start (7-1 in Big-West) are looking like a sure fire thing to reach March, as a 12-14 seed. Teams that don’t want to be matched up with this team: Villanova, Iowa and Texas Tech. Watch out for the Anteaters in a month.
Tier Two: Fist Weekend Madness
These teams are usually seeded in the 9-11 range, they take advantage of the Madness in March and come away with multiple upsets during the first weekend. While they usually fall soon after in the sweet sixteen or in some cases the Elite Eight. Prime examples from the last three years would include Syracuse (2018), Xavier (2017), Wisconsin (2017), Kansas State (2018), FSU (2018), and Gonzaga (2016). As you can see these are primarily teams that are somewhat household names that struggled at times, but were still very talent primarily. Also note that Loyola Chicago from last year, Butler in 2010, Syracuse from 2016 and VCU in 2011, while double-digit seeds that reached the second weekend, made it all the way to the final four so they don’t fit, these are not extremely tight guidelines and there are plenty of exceptions. This year the field of possibilities do not look as strong because of the weak bubble. But these are the best candidates…
Candidate One: UCF
UCF has found itself squarely on the bubble. If the Knights are to make the tournament, they have all the tools to notch their first-ever March Madness win and would mark their first appearance since 2005 when they were a 15 seed coming out of the Atlantic Sun. Like UC Irvine, UCF plays at a very slow pace, ranking just 328th in the nation. The Knights feature an experienced big three in B.J Taylor, Audrey Dawkins, and Tacko Fall. In the American Conference, they have multiple chances to get a quality win, to go with their gaudy 16-4 record that includes wins over Alabama (ironic), Temple, and Northern Kentucky. Within the next month they a treacherous stretch with two matchups against 13 Houston and two against 25 Cincinnati. We’ll see if the Knights are truly for real, I already believe they are. Their backcourt is tremendous, the two average 31 ppg. The real difference maker for coach Johnny Dawkins is 7’6″ senior Tacko Fall. He is a frequent offensive rebounder and changes the whole dynamic of the game when is defending the rim making it very hard for opponents to finish at the rim. In this cores, final year expect a really good team.
Candidate Two: Lipscomb
Lipscomb made its first-ever tournament appearance last season and got its welcome party in the way of a thirty point loss to UNC. This year’s team has been terrific and could be the first Atlantic Sun team to make an at-large appearance since 1994, back when it was the TAAC and Charleston secured an at-large bid going 24-4. That was also the only at-large team to come out from the Atlantic Sun. Lipscomb is 18-4 and ranks 32 in NET and 34th in KenPom. No team lower than 34th in RPI (NET is the new RPI) has ever missed the tournament. Lipscomb losses include two losses to Belmont by a combined six points (more on them soon), a four point loss to Louisville, who is projected 4 seed, and a road loss to fellow bubble team Clemson. They have also notched four quad one and two wins, with road, wins over TCU, Liberty, and SMU as well as a home win over Vermont. So the Bisons have wins over teams they would be projected to face round one (they are projected as a 10 seed and TCU is a projected 7). Lipscomb also plays at a perfect pace to win games against quality opponents. On offense, they play an up-tempo and get high-quality shots early in the shot clock (11th highest pace in the country). But on defense, they play 30 seconds of grinding defense and make you earn your buckets, this is perhaps their biggest strength. The Bisons give up just 92.7 points per 100 possessions when adjusted for opponents, that eclipses teams such as Iowa St, Nevada, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Marquette, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Maryland, and many more sure-fire tournament teams. They held TCU to an 87.7 ORTG (107.9), SMU to a 94.8 ORTG (111.5), Louisville to a 94.7 ORTG (111.9), Vermont to a 94.3 ORTG (109.9) and Liberty to an 89.4 ORTG (113.6). The numbers in parentheses are these teams normal ORTG, extremely impressive that they held all these top 60 offenses to under a point per possession, their raw DRTG ranks eighth in the nation at 89.9. For comparison, the Bucks lead the NBA in DRTG with a 104.38 DRTG granted it is a whole different league but you can see what I’m saying.
While their defense is outstanding, they have a pair of superstars who are capable of carrying an offense. Garrison Mathews is the best player you have never heard of. Per 40 minutes the guard is averaging 28.55 ppg, 7.6 TRB, and just 3.3 TO (13 TO%) on crazy efficiency numbers. He shoots 42% from three on seven attempts a game, boasts a 64 TS%, and .239 WS/48. He had 23 points against TCU, 20 against Louisville, and 22 against Liberty, this dude shows up against big teams. Pair that with Rob Marberry (16 ppg) and you have a team primed to make a run in March.
Candidate Three: Belmont
Hidden in the Ohio Valley Conference and overshadowed by Ja Morant is the Dylan Windler led Belmont Bruins. Belmont swept Lipscomb, beat Murray St on the road and also defeated UCLA, with a 6-2 record in quad one and two games they have a real shot at an at-large bid if they play their cards right. Led by legit NBA prospect Dylan Windler, the Bruins have a high octane offense that ranks 5th in ppg (86.7) with only the 25th fastest pace in the nation. Head coach Rick Byrd has built a ball moving machine that can score at will against even the most stout defenses, see it’s 87 point performance against Lipscomb for proof. While they have a trio of bad loses to Jacksonville St x2 and to Green Bay, they are a team that is just waiting to catch a defense lenient team off guard, like Iowa or Auburn. The main running point of their offense is their big four of senior’s Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain as well as freshman Nick Muszynski and Grayson Murphy. Windler averages 19 points and 10 rebounds as a 6’8 wing who can also shoot the three ball. Kevin McClain averages 16 points and four assists acting as the team’s main ball handler, even though he is not the team’s leading assist getter. That would be freshman Grayson Murphy who averages 6 apg which is good for second place in the OVC behind Ja Morant. Too round out the big four is freshman phenom Nick Muszynski, the 6’11 center averages 16 points and six rebounds on an outstanding 66 TS%. Belmont has reached seven tournaments in the last 12 years but is yet to win a game, this outstanding group should be the first of they get the right matchup.
Tier Three: Dark Horses
These are the teams that least happen, mainly because there are only four teams that make the final four. These are usually seeded 5-7 that make a run to the final four, in a way teams like Loyola-Chicago and VCU would fall in this category more than tier two. Last year I predicted Houston to be a final four team, and I would have been right if it were not for Jordan Poole’s lucky shot for Michigan. In 2017, South Carolina defied the odds defeating Duke, Baylor, and Florida on their way to the final four. While “Dark Horses” have an advantage in the first round that is usually the only advantage they get on their trip. So what are some dark horse candidates to get to Minneapolis?
Candidate One: Buffalo
Buffalo has been the mid-major darling of this season. After last years dismantling of the DeAndre Ayton led Wildcats, they went into Morgantown and became the first team to beat WVU in their home opener in nearly 30 years. They proceeded to go on an 10 game winning streak that including wins against Syracuse and San Francisco, they reached 14th in the rankings before falling to Marquette. In MAC play they are just a modest 6-2, this has caused some skepticism and their projected seed as fell from a four to a six. But they still are a dark horse team if they end in the six-seven seed range. Unlike last year’s team, which had a sub 100 defense, the Bulls have improved to a top 20 defensive efficiency, to go with their top 30 offense. They play very similar to Lipscomb in the way that they get quick shots on offense, pushing the ball in the open court. But they also play suffocating defense forcing opponents into dwindling shot clocks. But unlike the Bisons, the Bulls are an exceptional three-point shooting team and also have two excellent stretch bigs in Montell McRae and Josh Perkins.
But the best thing the Bulls have going for them is a bonafide superstar in CJ Massenburg. While his simple box score stats of 18/6/3 doesn’t seem spectacular, he has some of the best efficiency metrics in the nation. Those 18 points are on a 63 TS% and a terrifically low 22% usage rate. He has an 11.1 BPM, a 27 PER, and .261 WS/48. His ability to hit clutch shots is outstanding. Against WVU he had 40 points, including a fading 30 footer to send it to overtime. Against Syracuse, he had 20 points in the last 15 minutes and had a game-tying shot from damn near the logo against Northern Illinois. There might be no better player in the clutch this year, especially outside the top four seeds.
Candidate Two: Iowa St
Iowa St might finish too high of a seed to be in this category as they could very well finish as a four seed. But for now, they are a projected a five to six seed by most bracketologists. Led by Virginia transfer Marial Shayok and Lindell Wigginton, the Cyclones feature four 12 ppg scorers. They are also one of the few teams that feature both a top 25 offense and defense. The Cyclones have already beat a plethora of tournament teams including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, and Ole Miss and have acquired zero bad loses. Virginia transfer, Marial Shayok has been a breakout star and is the potential BIG-12 POY averaging nearly 20 ppg, the senior is ultra-athletic and is a walking matchup nightmare. Lindell Winnington and Talen Horton Tucker are going to be drafted this summer and are both athletic scorers. Outside of these three, they have many good scorers and matchup problems to mess with teams. Assuming they lose a game or two more than they are projected to and finish with a six seed, a three seed matchup with a team like Houston or Marquette would be ideal as they rely on smaller guards, and Iowa St can overpower both teams.
Candidate Three: Mississippi St
Coach Ben Howland was fired from UCLA after making a final four just a couple years prior, now at Miss St, it is looking like he will lead the Bulldogs to their first tournament appearance in a decade. Led by guards Quandary Weatherspoon and Lamar Peters they have a veteran-laden squad. Weatherspoon is their primary scorer averaging 18 ppg while Peters is the primary ball distributor averaging 6 apg. Down low, Aric Holman is a great rim protector and can play the perimeter extremely well for a big guy and freshman Reggie Perry is a tough freshman who plays older than his age. Most of this core was on the team last season when they reached the NIT final four on one of Witherspoon’s five career game-winners. This team knows how to win in the postseason. This year they were expected to break out and they have mostly delivered and have established themselves as a top five SEC team. In the non-conference, they went an impressive 11-1 that included wins over Cincinnati, Clemson, Wofford, and St. Marys. While they have somewhat struggled in SEC play going just 4-5 a majority of their loses have been too good teams and have wins against Auburn, Florida, and Ole Miss. They are 6-3 against quadrant one teams. The Dogs have a top 20 offense and can score at will against most teams. The best potential second-round matchup would be a team like Texas Tech or UNC. While they play vastly different they both give Miss St advantages. Texas Tech has the second best defense in the country, but an abysmally ranked 111th offense. If Miss St hits their shots, their average defense is enough to subdue the Red Raiders scoring. UNC pushes the tempo which is what Miss St prefers, but the Tarheels rely on offensive rebounds a lot and the Bulldogs are great at keeping teams to one shot. Louisville showed what happened if UNC struggles to shoot and recoup their misses, the Cardinals won by 25 at Chapel Hill.
Those are the candidates for this year’s Cinderellas, in every shape and form. Hope you enjoyed the blog!